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Science of surveying has margin of error

Smith's New Hampshire poll for CNN predicted a Barack Obama victory by 9 points. He lost by about 3 points.

Still, demand grows for polls in a country where the citizenry is obsessed with who's No. 1.

Presidential polls have been around since the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian newspaper published the first one in 1824. Primary polls, despite their hazards, became a fixture of the political scene in the 1970s, when convention delegates were no longer appointed by party bosses but chosen by voters.

"By the '90s everybody was trying to make a name and win recognition, because you get a lot of publicity," said pollster and historian David Moore.

At the birth of the industry, there were just two public pollsters. Now there are nearly 40, according to Pollster.com, plus a thriving network of campaign pollsters.


Berlusconi wants early Italy elections

Italian president Giorgio Napolitano, foreground, leaves after making a brief statement to the press, following meetings with Italian political representatives, in Rome's Quirinale Presidential palace, Tuesday Jan. 29, 2008. Napolitano said Tuesday he needed more time to decide his next step in Italy's political crisis, as conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi demanded early elections following the resignation of his rival, center-left Premier Romano Prodi, last week. President Giorgio Napolitano said the situations was "complicated and difficult" given a high number of parties and conflicting positions. .


Hosing down divisions in suburbia

The State Government has acted properly in introducing restrictions on the use of domestic water, particularly to sustain private gardens which often include water-thirsty lawns and exotic plants unsuited to SA's harsh summer conditions.

But as The Advertiser revealed last week, hundreds of home owners - mainly in more affluent suburbs - are sinking backyard bores which allow them almost unlimited water use at no charge.

Bores can cost anywhere from $6000 to $20,000, well beyond the reach of many household budgets. It is a blatant case of one rule for the rich, another for the poor.

Ironically, home owners with bores are able to maintain lush lawns and gardens while public parks, which can be enjoyed by thousands of people, are being burnt brown because of the lack of water.


America's uncontrollable war machine

From George W. Bush's war machine comes word that thousands more Marines will soon head for Afghanistan to fight the war he abandoned nearly five years ago for the ill-conceived invasion of Iraq.

This doesn't mean we're getting out of Iraq. We will probably be debating the Iraq war in the 2012 Presidential campaign, along with the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq and God-knows-where-else.

Call it the endless war syndrome - the result of too many years of out-of-control policies that have left us with little choice but to fight on and on for fictitious reasons and an arrogant illusion of superiority.

Bush has placed this nation in an untenable position. We have no business in Iraq but we can't leave. We could have finished the job in Afghanistan in 2003 but we pulled out to fight his useless war in Iraq.


Khans of Central Asia

According to former U.S. national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's theory, control of the Eurasian landmass is the key to global domination and control of Central Asia is the key to control of the Eurasian landmass.

In The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, Brzezinski wrote: “Moreover, they (the Central Asian republics) are of importance from the standpoint of security and historical ambitions to at least three of their most immediate and more powerful neighbors, namely Russia, Turkey and Iran, with China also signaling an increasing political interest in the region. But the Eurasian Balkans are infinitely more important as a potential economic prize: an enormous concentration of natural gas and oil reserves is located in the region, in addition to important minerals, including gold."

Indeed, the United States, Russia, China, and the Islamic world are all competing for influence in the region in what many call the New Great Game.



 

 

 

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